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The BBVA Group companies that have participated in preparing or contributed information, opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations to this report are identified by the location(s) of the author(s) listed on the first page as follows: 1) Madrid, London or Europe = Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., including its E.U. branches (hereinafter called ‘BBVA’); 2) Mexico City = BBVA Bancomer, S.A. Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer (hereinafter called ‘BBVA Bancomer’); 3) New York = BBVA Securities, Inc. (hereinafter called «BBVA Securities»); 4.) New York Branch = BBVA, New York branch; 5.) Lima =BBVA Perú; 6.) Bogota = BBVA Colombia S.A.; 7.) Hong Kong = BBVA, Hong Kong branch.
For recipients in the European Union, this document is distributed by BBVA, a bank supervised by the Bank of Spain and by Spain’s Stock Exchange Commission (CNMV), and registered with the Bank of Spain with number 0182.
For recipients in Hong Kong, this document is distributed by BBVA, which Hong Kong branch is supervised by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
For recipients in Mexico, this document is distributed by BBVA Bancomer, a bank supervised by the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores de México.
For recipients in Peru, this document is distributed by BBVA Perú, a bank supervised by the Superintendencia de Banca, Seguros y Administradoras Privadas de Fondos de Pensiones.
For recipients in Singapore, this document is distributed by BBVA, which Singapore branch is supervised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
For recipients in USA, research on products other than equity securities or swaps is being distributed by BBVA Securities, a subsidiary of BBVA registered with and supervised by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority («FINRA») and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. U.S. persons wishing to execute any transactions should do so only by contacting a representative of BBVA Securities in the U.S. Unless local regulations provide otherwise, non-U.S. persons should contact and execute transactions through a BBVA branch or affiliate in their home jurisdiction.
Research on swaps is being distributed by BBVA, a swaps dealer registered with and supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission («CFTC»). U.S. persons wishing to execute any transactions should do so only by contacting a representative of BBVA. Unless local regulations provide otherwise, non-U.S. persons should contact and execute transactions through a BBVA branch or affiliate in their home jurisdiction.
Research prepared by BBVA on equity securities and equity derivatives is being distributed by BBVA to «major U.S. institutional investors» based on an exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the «Exchange Act»). BBVA is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and is not subject to U.S. rules on preparing research or independence of research analysts.
BBVA and BBVA Group companies or affiliates (art. 42 of the Royal Decree of 22 August 1885 Code of Commerce), are subject to the BBVA Group Policy on Conduct for Security Market Operations which establishes common standards for activity in these entities’ markets, but also specifically for analysis and analysts. This BBVA policy is available for reference at the following web site: www.bbva.com.
Analysts residing outside the U.S. who have contributed to this report are not registered with or qualified as research analysts by FINRA or the New York Stock Exchange and may not be considered «associated persons» of BBVA Securities (as such term is construed by the rules of FINRA). As such, they are not subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with subject companies, public appearances and trading of securities held in research analysts’ accounts.
BBVA or any of its affiliates beneficially owned at least 1 % of the common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report:
In the past twelve months, BBVA or one or more of its affiliates managed or co-managed public offerings of the following companies covered in this report: Abertis, ACS, Actinvr, Aeromex, Almirall, Acciona, Bayer AG, BBVA, BES, Chdraui, CTT – Correios de Portugal, CONCENTRADORA FIBRA DANHOS S, DIA, EDP, Enel Green Power, Enagás, ESS, Falabella, Funo, Gas Natural, Gfamsa, Herdez, Kof, GRUPO LALA SAB DE CV, Liberbank, Livepol, Logista, Arcelor Mittal, OHL, Oma, Pinfra, Banco Popular, Red Eléctrica, Telefónica.
In the past twelve months, BBVA or one or more of its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services from the following companies covered in this report: Alfa, Alicorp, Almirall, Alsea, Amx, Acciona, Ara, Bimbo, Cementos Lima, Enel Green Power, Enagás, Funo, Gas Natural, Grifols, Gruma, Ica, MEGACABLE HOLDINGS-CPO, Mexchem, Mfrisco, Ohlmex, Pinfra, Repsol, Telefónica, Telmex.
In the next three months, BBVA or one or more of its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the companies covered in this report.
BBVA or one or more of its affiliates makes a market/provides liquidity in the securities of the following companies covered in this report: Amx, Bankia, Cemex, DIA, Endesa, Falabella, Femsa, Gas Natural, Gcarso, Gmexico, Iberdrola, Meliá Hotels Int., Banco Popular, Repsol, Banco Sabadell,Telefónica, Telmex, Televisa, Walmex.
BBVA is subject to a Code of Conduct for Security Market Operations, which details the standards of the above-mentioned overall policy for the EU. Among other regulations, it includes rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interests with the ratings given, including information barriers. This Code of Conduct for Security Market Operations is available for reference in the ‘Corporate Governance’ section of the following web site: www.bbva.com.
BBVA Bancomer is subject to a Code of Conduct and to Internal Standards of Conduct for Security Market Operations, which details the standards of the above-mentioned overall policy for Mexico. Among other regulations, it includes rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interests with the ratings given, including information barriers. This Code and the Internal Standards are available for reference in the ‘Grupo BBVA Bancomer’ subsection of the ‘Conócenos’ menu of the following web site: www.bancomer.com.
BBVA Perú is subject to a Code of Conduct and to a Code of Ethics and Internal Standards of Conduct for Security Market Operations, which details the standards of the above-mentioned overall policy for Peru. Among other regulations, it includes rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interests with the ratings given, including information barriers. Both Codes are available for reference in the ‘Quiénes Somos’ subsection of the ‘Conócenos’ menu of the following web site: www.bbvacontinental.pe.
BBVA Securities is subject to a Capital Markets Code of Conduct, which details the standards of the above-mentioned overall policy for USA. Among other regulations, it includes rules to prevent and avoid conflicts of interests with the ratings given, including information barriers.
Exclusively for Recipients Resident in Mexico
In the past twelve months, BBVA Bancomer has granted banking credits to the following companies covered in this report: Alfa, AXTEL SAB DE CV – CPO, Bachoco, Bimbo, Chdraui, Gas Natural, Gcarso, Geo, Gfamsa, Iberdrola, Ica, Lab, GRUPO LALA SAB DE CV, Livepol, Urbi.
In the past twelve months, BBVA Bancomer has granted Common Representative services to the following companies covered in this report: N/A.
As far as it is known, a Director, Executive Manager or Manager reporting directly to the BBVA Bancomer General Manager has the same position in the following companies that may be covered in this report: Alfa, Alsea, Amx, Asur, Bimbo, Femsa, Gap, Gcarso, Gfinbur, Gmodelo, Gruma, Kof, Livepol, Oma, Pe&oles, Telmex, Televisa, Urbi.
BBVA Bancomer acts as a market maker/specialist in: MexDer Future Contracts (US dollar [DEUA], 28-day TIIEs [TE28], TIIE Swaps, 91-day CETES [CE91]), Bonos M, Bonos M3, Bonos M10, BMV Price and Quotations Index (IPC), Options Contracts (IPC, shares in América Móvil, Cemex, CPO, Femsa UBD, Gcarso A1, Telmex L) and Udibonos.
BBVA Bancomer, and, as applicable, its affiliates within BBVA Bancomer Financial Group, may hold from time to time investments in the securities or derivative financial instruments with underlying securities covered in this report, which represent 10% or more of its securities or investment portfolio, or 10% or more of the issue or underlying of the securities covered.
Equity Derivatives – Ratings System
Recommended strategies in equity derivatives may include taking positions in an equity underlying instrument (such as stocks, stock indices, sector indices, or dividends on stocks or stock indices), volatility or correlation/dispersion instruments, and/or structured products. Strategies may be: 1.) directional, long or short positions; or 2.) relative, spread based, between products that are the subject of a report. Factors that are considered in recommending strategies may include current market prices and conditions, macroeconomic trends and outlook, fundamental analysis of underlying companies and securities, outlook for dividends, as well as expected volatility and momentum in securities prices. Recommended strategies are maintained until expired, or recommended to be closed in a report.
Recommended strategies employing equity derivatives may differ from ratings that have been made by BBVA on underlying companies and their securities. Strategies over different time horizons may also not be consistent. You should note that actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecasted in the recommended strategies, or price targets, as these involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are beyond the ability of BBVA or its affiliates to control or predict. Future actions, conditions or events (affecting both market and non-market conditions, including those of a political or macroeconomic nature) and future results of operations of subject companies may cause prices of recommended securities to differ materially from those expressed in this document.
Equities – Ratings System, Distribution and History
We have three ratings for stocks based on our current expectations of relative returns over a six to twelve month period: i.) Outperform – we expect the stock to have returns more than 5% above its benchmark; ii.) Market Perform – we expect the stock to perform in-line (+/-5%) with its benchmark; and iii.) Underperform – we expect the stock to have returns more than 5% below its benchmark. Factors which may influence our ratings include: current market prices and conditions, operating issues and financing needs, macroeconomic trends and outlook, mergers and acquisitions, and valuation. Valuation methods used by BBVA include multiples of comparable companies, discounted cash flows, sum of the parts, and other generally accepted methods that may apply to a particular case.
Price targets are provided based on the methodology explained above. You should note that actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecasted in these price targets, as these involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are beyond the ability of BBVA or its affiliates to control or predict. Future actions, conditions or events (affecting both market and non-market conditions, including those of a political or macroeconomic nature) and future results of operations of subject companies may cause stock prices to differ materially from those expressed in this document.
As of today, for the whole universe of companies which BBVA has under coverage there are 34.57%Outperform ratings, 35.8% Market Perform ratings and 25.93% Underperform ratings. BBVA or any of its affiliates has rendered Investment Banking services or participated as manager and/or co-manager in public offerings in 48.28% of the Outperform ratings, 37.93% of the Market Perform ratings and in 6.9% of the Underperform ratings.
The research analysts included on the front page of this report hereby certify that (i) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject companies and their securities and (ii) no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
This document and the information, opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations expressed herein have been prepared to provide BBVA Group’s customers with general information and are current as of the date hereof and subject to changes without prior notice. Neither BBVA nor any of its affiliates is responsible for giving notice of such changes or for updating the contents hereof.
This document and its contents do not constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe to any securities or other instruments, to undertake or divest investments, or to participate in any trading strategy. Neither shall this document nor its contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.
Investors who have access to this document should be aware that the securities, instruments or investments to which it refers may not be appropriate for them due to their specific investment goals, financial positions or risk profiles, as these have not been taken into account to prepare this report. Therefore, investors should make their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtaining such specialized advice as may be necessary. Other than the disclosures relating to BBVA Group, the contents of this document are based upon information available to the public that has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable. However, such information has not been independently verified by BBVA or any of its affiliates and therefore no warranty, either express or implicit, is given regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness. To the extent permitted by law, BBVA and its affiliates accept no liability of any type for any direct or indirect losses or damages arising from the use of this document or its contents. Investors should note that the past performance of securities or instruments or the historical results of investments do not guarantee future performance.
The market prices of securities or instruments or the results of investments could fluctuate against the interests of investors. Investors should be aware that they could even face a loss of their investment. Transactions in futures, derivatives, options on securities or high-yield securities can involve high risks and are not appropriate for every investor. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, investors may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Thus, before undertaking any transaction with these instruments, investors should be aware of their operation, as well as the rights, liabilities and risks implied by the same and the underlying securities. Investors should also be aware that secondary markets for the said instruments may not exist.
BBVA or any of its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to its clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Furthermore, BBVA or any of its affiliates’ proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated by any other form or means (ii) redistributed or (iii) quoted, without the prior written consent of BBVA. No part of this report may be copied, conveyed, distributed or furnished to any person or entity in any country (or persons or entities in the same) in which its distribution is prohibited by law. More specifically, this document is in no way intended for, or to be distributed or used by an entity or person resident or located in a jurisdiction in which the said distribution, publication, use of or access to the document contravenes the law which requires BBVA or any of its affiliates to obtain a licence or be registered. Failure to comply with these restrictions may breach the laws of the relevant jurisdiction.
The remuneration system concerning the analysts responsible for the preparation of this report is based on multiple criteria, including the revenues obtained by BBVA and, indirectly, the results of BBVA Group in the fiscal year, which, in turn, include the results generated by the investment banking business; nevertheless, they do not receive any remuneration based on revenues from any specific transaction in investment banking.
In the United Kingdom, this document is directed only at persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within article 19(5) of the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2005 (as amended, the «financial promotion order»), (ii) are persons falling within article 49(2) (a) to (d) («high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.») of the financial promotion order, or (iii) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as «relevant persons»). This document is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
BBVA Hong Kong Branch (CE number AFR194) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong this report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap 571) of Hong Kong.
This document is distributed in Singapore by BBVA’s office in this country for general information purposes and it is generally accessible. In this respect, this document does not take into account the specific investment goals, the financial situation or the need of any particular person and it is exempted from Regulation 34 of the Financial Advisors Regulation («FAR») (as required in Section 27 of the Financial Advisors Act (Chapter 110) of Singapore («FAA»)).
BBVA, BBVA Bancomer, BBVA Colombia S.A., BBVA Perú and BBVA Securities are not authorised deposit institutions in accordance with the definition of the Australian Banking Act of 1959 nor are they regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA).
General Disclaimer for Readers Accessing the Report through the Internet
In the event that this document has been accessed via the internet or via any other electronic means which allows its contents to be viewed, the following information should be read carefully:
The information contained in this document should be taken only as a general guide on matters that may be of interest. The application and impact of laws may vary substantially depending on specific circumstances. BBVA does not guarantee that this report and/or its contents published on the Internet are appropriate for use in all geographic areas, or that the financial instruments, securities, products or services referred to in it are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions or for all investors or counterparties. Recipients of this report who access it through the Internet do so on their own initiative and are responsible for compliance with local regulations applicable to them.
Changes in regulations and the risks inherent in electronic communications may cause delays, omissions, or inaccuracy in the information contained in this site. Accordingly, the information contained in the site is supplied on the understanding that the authors and editors do not hereby intend to supply any form of consulting, legal, accounting or other advice.
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